War with Iraq -- Predictable as Chess
New
technologies undergird a potential war with Saddam.
by Richard A.
Muller
Technology for
Presidents
from Technology Review Online
November 15,
2002
There is still
a good chance we can avoid war with Iraq. Saddam Hussein has never won a war, and
his military forces surely foresee their own destruction. Numerous
assassination attempts by them (some involving the Republican Guard) have
failed. They are likely trying again, even now. Therein lies our best hope.
What if they
fail again? Then invasion by the U.S. is inevitable.
Prior to our
war in Afghanistan, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld emphasized that the
imminent war would be different from what nearly everyone expected. I don't
think he knew exactly what was going to happen, but he did know that the
conventional wisdom was irrelevant. He was planning to engage in
'unconventional warfare,' a paradigm developed by the Special Operations
Command that involves both new doctrine and new technology. Rumsfeld was right.
No newspaper pundit foresaw that the Taliban would be overthrown within months
using ground troops who were predominantly Muslim.
The Iraq war
too will be different from what nearly everyone expects. There will be yet new
doctrine and new weapons. It will not be another Desert Storm. I can't predict
the detailed course of events; I doubt that even Secretary Rumsfeld could do
that. War is no more predictable than is a game of chess. Even if we know the
rules and the strengths of the players, there are two sides. Early choices made
by the opponent can drastically affect the course of moves as well as the
outcome.
Instead, I'll
describe one plausible scenario (out of many possible) that illustrates the
technologies and doctrine that I think will prove important.
My scenario begins
when the U.N. inspectors become frustrated and leave Iraq. That's the war
trigger. I don't envy the inspectors; Saddam Hussein may try to take them
hostage and keep them at targeted military facilities. Their job is even more
dangerous than that of the U.S. president (9.3 percent of whom have been
assassinated while in office).
The initial
part of the war will seem familiar: massive bombing of military and
communication facilities, with the same precise bombs used in Afghanistan. All
Iraqi military and public broadcast stations will soon be shut down. New ones
will appear, transmitted from airplanes and new ground stations, with native
Iraqi announcers. They will update the progress of the war, with an emphasis on
accuracy, so that people will eagerly listen and learn to trust the announcers.
They will describe Saddam's known horrors, the U.N.'s unanimous resolution, the
backing of the Arab League (if the U.S. gets it for the war too), and surrender
instructions. What is said will ring true, because the military will broadcast
only the truth. Truth is more effective than propaganda. That (as well as the
use of native announcers) is the doctrine of the U.S. Special Operations
Command.
Most of our
bombs will be JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions). JDAMs are dumb bombs with
relatively inexpensive guidance systems attached to their backs. JDAMs use GPS
(Global Positioning System) satellites to guide them to previously
programmed-in locations. This technology was not ready in time for Desert
Storm, but it was used extensively in Afghanistan. It was accurate and
effective. Ground troops will first invade the thinly-populated region of
western Iraq -- to get control of the only part of the country that puts Israel
within Iraq's Scud missile range. Israel is Saddam's nearest civilian target of
vengeance. With this initial invasion the U.S. hopes to preempt Israel's
entrance into the war.
The war might
end early. I believe that Saddam is hated by most of his own people, including
the military. With the Predator unmanned air attack vehicle patrolling Baghdad
skies, disgruntled Iraqi troops can do more than surrender; if they know, they
can tell us where Saddam is. Again, the toughest job for us is vetting such
information, particularly over a clutter of disinformation generated by Saddam.
He will employ numerous look-a-likes (another job more dangerous than that of
the U.S. president). He will do his best to trick us into attacking a mosque or
children's hospital. I suspect he is delighted whenever the U.S. accidentally
kills Iraqi civilians.
The invasion
of Baghdad (if necessary) will take place on a dark night, moonless or
cloud-covered. The army motto (once used exclusively by the U.S. Special
Operations Forces) is now 'We own the night.' Our forces not only see in the
dark, they are trained to fight in the dark.
Goggles that
require only starlight to give vision have been available since World War II,
but now there is an entire panoply of much more advanced technology. Binoculars
and gunsights can see in the far infrared (FIR) without illumination of any
kind. They vividly image people from their own warmth. Far infrared
surveillance cameras will fly just above the city on Predator unmanned-air
vehicles. They can detect whether an automobile or tank engine is running (or
has been recently running) solely from the warmth of the engine.
If you dread
city warfare, perhaps based on accounts from World War II or Somalia (e.g.
Black Hawk Down), recognize that it may still be bad, but in Baghdad it will be
different. In a few seconds, a synthetic aperture radar carried on a Predator
can take a radar image of several city blocks with a ground resolution of 30
centimeters. It looks like a sharp photo taken from directly above. The image
will be delivered to the ground troops in nearly real time (we couldn't do that
in Desert Storm) using the new Joint Tactical Information Distribution System.
In this city warfare, there will be fewer surprises lurking just around the
corner.
When the
Predator finds something interesting on radar or far infrared, it can zoom in
with an optical telescope for a close look. According to the New York Times, it
did this in Yemen on November 3. It (or rather, the remote pilot) fired a
Hellfire missile and killed Abu Ali, the accused planner of the attack on the
USS Cole. Saddam may run out of look-alikes, as the Predator spots them and
kills them. Don't be surprised if Saddam instructs all male Iraqis to grow
mustaches and to dress like him. Higher in the sky, the unmanned Global Hawk (a
U-2 replacement) equipped with far infrared and Synthetic Aperture Radar (and
more) will survey large areas. A Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System
will locate, identify, and track most vehicles, in all weather conditions. It
was used in Desert Storm, but now (as with the Predator) the information will
be available to our ground troops almost instantly.
What can go
wrong? Unfortunately, a lot. New technologies and new systems often fail. But my
worst fear is of Saddam's biological weapons. According to intelligence
estimates, he has 7,000 liters of anthrax in readiness, over a million times
the material used in the U.S. terrorist mailings. Even worse is his suspected
store of smallpox virus, which (unlike anthrax) can spread through contagion
around the world. He will probably save these weapons of mass destruction for
the end, until he finally realizes he will lose. The U.S. already has been
warning Iraqi troops to disobey any order to use such weapons, or to later be
tried as war criminals. Such a warning might work. With the end near, Hitler
ordered the Nazis to burn Paris, and they disobeyed.
If Saddam
releases smallpox, the main victims will almost certainly be his own people and
those in the under-developed world. The U.S. has advanced health care, and can
distribute vaccine rapidly and treat victims effectively. But even we cannot
contain smallpox. Frightened people will spread the disease as they flee
contaminated regions.
Even though the
moves are unpredictable, the stronger player usually wins in chess. Let me jump
to the presumed end, and ask a speculative question. A few years after the war
is over, which countries in the Persian Gulf region do you think will be the
closest allies of the United States? I am not a political expert, but I can't
resist telling you my guess. Saudi Arabia will not be one of them. Our closest
allies will be the three countries in the area that we liberated: Kuwait,
Afghanistan, and Iraq.
Versailles and
the Louvre in France, and the Hermitage in Russia, were preserved by the
revolutionaries, in part to document the excesses of the Kings and
Czars. Saddam's palaces may contain weapons of mass destruction, but I
hope we can avoid destroying them completely. Let us preserve as much of
the palaces as we can, as monuments to Saddam's greed and selfishness. I hope
to visit one in a few years, perhaps when it is a museum.